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New Yorkers will learn the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who governs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be critical to the direction that the party, struggling in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to voters' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

However, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's current model of considered, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has angered the party base. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has drawn an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on attacking the candidate personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in last year, few had known him, and in reality, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in 2011, 17 years after his father, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Still, the candidate has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after video surfaced appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a DSA gathering in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd