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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It often serves as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest turnaround is handed the award. In practice, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or simply the greatest surprise.

However the latest race is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions fading and recent underperformers ascending together. In an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in this chaotic and fun season, he's competing with multiple other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the ideal vote could shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent performance. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open targets consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the immense hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet this isn't a typical season!

Where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. However Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership stuff, which was not a given after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

After an early hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. He gets the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

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